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2018 Primary Forecast and Predictions
I've been sitting back watching the Primary unfold and I think I have seen enough to make a forecast. These are based on my opinions and just trying to read the tea leaves.
State House 66:
Republicans: Bowling Vs. Van Wye
Joe Van Wye is basically unknown outside his home town of Madison while Mike Bowling is close within the Jamey Noel camp. District 66 is a lot different than 71 because of the large geographic area it covers. Even though this is at least the second try for the office for Joe, Mike has a lot more support in the populous areas thanks to his Clark County roots, wide community involvement, and support from Sherriff Noel. I see an easy victory for the Mike Bowling Camp.
Republicans: Owen Vs. Burke
Matt Owen and Dr. Kevin Burke makes for one of the most interesting races. On one side, young Matt who is somewhat limited in general life experience but has proven himself on the city council and also the highest vote getter in the At-Large Council races. On the other side, elderly Dr. Burke who was thought to be a democrat for years. I see this being a tight race but I give the edge to Matt Owen.
Democrats: Fleming Vs. Schlatter
Dr. Rita Fleming and Jason Schlatter is also a very interesting race to see unfold. Dr, Fleming has her followers for sure but no one in any Clark County Race can match the work put in by Jason Schlatter. While Jason hits this ballot completely unknown prior to this race, I see his hard work paying off in a victory over Dr. Fleming.
State House 72:
Democrats: Charbonneau Vs. FitzGerald
Both of these candidates have the same basic platform: school funding and fighting substance abuse. However, if you want guns to be taken away then FitzGerald is probably your guy. While both of them are gun control advocates, FitzGerald appears to be the "Take Them All Away" candidate. Beyond that, the overall tone of Fitz' campaign is similar to Dan Canon's and the district is within Canon's strong hold of New Albany, I'm going to give this race to FitzGerald.
Floyd County Sherriff:
Republicans: Loop Vs. Lehman
Incumbent Sherriff Loop has done a great job in office. I'm going to have to go with the incumbent for this race and give Loop the dubya.
Floyd County Commissioner District 1:
Democrats: Applegate Vs. Martin
This race has really heated up over the last week thanks to a WLKY news story. It wasn't so much the WLKY story that fired this up but the response on social media over the weekend by supporters on both sides. Personally, I side with the Applegate camp in that Martin has hit on EVERYTHING except Smart Growth which is the centerpiece of Applegate's campaign. Martin seemed to notice that she is outmatched by Applegate so figured it works for him, must work for her too so why not use the TV interview to the fullest. How will this work out? Who knows. What I do know is that Applegate is all over the place and has lots of support compared to Martin. Because of that, this races goes to Applegate.
Democrats: Jordan Vs. Hollis
Larry Jordan Jr. seems like a nice man but Barb Hollis has always been well liked and done a good job over the years. Just on the sure fact that she is a strong incumbent, I have to give her the victory.
Floyd County Council District 2:
Republicans: Roberts Vs. Wright
So Cam Wright is the incumbent but he is one of the most quite elected officials I've ever seen. I've found myself often wondering how this guy got elected. Adam Roberts on the other hand really wants to be elected to something. I've seen him in different places running for different things. Never really heard anything bad about him but nothing that sets the world on fire either. I'm going to make this call based on how hard Roberts is working this election and I'll give him the win.
The seat being vacated by Zach Payne seems to be the most sought after seat within local government this time around. I say for the democrats, it is a toss up between Lincoln Crum and Jeff Frey. For the republicans, I think Terry Conway pulls out the win. When the votes are counted on election day, your guess is as good as mine to who ends up on the November ballot. There are too many people in the field on either side of the ticket to assume a winner.
US Representative for IN 9th District:
Republicans: Hollingsworth Vs. Alspach
Representative Hollingsworth is strong. In my opinion he's actually done a very good job as our congressman. He's very intelligent, pragmatic, and proactive. In my experiences, if I have called him he has always called back. If we didn't agree, we were able to have a very in-depth conversation to where we could both explain our points of view and why. As for James Alspach, I have one question. Who is James Alspatch? Other than a businessman from Morgantown, I have no idea and have not heard his name one time. The victory in this primary goes to Hollingsworth by a landslide.
Democrats: Canon Vs. Watson Vs. Chatlos
This race is really only between 2 of these candidates: Dan Canon or Liz Watson. Between the two you have "Bernie Sanders Liberal" Dan Canon or "Bernie Sanders Liberal" Liz Watson. No doubt that Canon has wide support from the hipster generation. However, they both support policies that would turn Indiana into a combination of (insert socialist country here) and California. Liz is a lot more polished than Dan and I believe her previous efforts within Washington helps her carry wider support from Democrats. While Dan will probably bring in a majority of the LGTB vote because of his Supreme Court Case, I believe Liz comes out on top of this one by a narrow margin because of her support from labor-unions.
US Senate:
Braun Vs. Messer Vs. Rokita
This race is a mess because of all the mud being thrown around. Let's be honest, Messer and Rokita are basically the same person from the stand point of experience and voting record to where I have a hard time separating the two of them. I really liked Braun until he jumped into the mud throwing game with the others. As for who the winner will be, it's looking more and more like Messer is working it a little better and probably has the edge.
What are your thoughts?
Do you have the scoop?
Put them in the comments below!
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